I like avoiding the lockout topic as much as I can, and just focus on the Cubs and what will happen when there is baseball, but at this point it's kind of unavoidable. And it's also not good news.
Going into the lockout I naturally expected it to be as aggravating as possible, with the possibility of Spring Training games or even regular season games being canceled. But I looked at the optimistic side that said that MLB and MLBPA would reach an agreement peaceably and before Spring Training starts. There are a million reasons why I want the lockout to end now, or at least before ST, including wanting to see how the new Cubs' team looks and all the endless possibilities to the success of prospects and players.
But I'll start with the news first, and then discuss it from there.
Baseball labor update: There is no deal. There never was going to be one today. MLB made a proposal. The reaction among the players was not positive. Few on either side expected it to be. The question is how soon the MLBPA counters. Spring training starting on time is in peril.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) January 13, 2022
Players side suggests they are very disappointed there was no change in the CBT (luxury tax threshold). But MLB position is that this offer was merely made to address the issue of younger player pay and to get the ball rolling and they will negotiate on CBT and free agency later.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 13, 2022
MLB offered a formula to provide more money to players with 2-plus years of service time in attempt to address concern about younger stars being vastly underpaid. The increased offer in minimum salary from $570,500 to $600K in 2022 (then scaled up in ‘23, etc.) has been on table.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 13, 2022
MLB remans dead set against lowering free agency from 6 years to 5. Part of the concern stems from the history of the big stars jumping from smaller markets to big markets when they hit free agency and belief this would hurt competitive balance.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 13, 2022
If you don't quite understand all the business, technical part of baseball, it's ok. The basic gist is that MLB and MLBPA (MLB Players Association) met, and MLB made a proposal. There were some things in it that MLBPA did not like, and no agreement is close to being made.
The process in the agreements is what takes the longest. They have to agree on general stuff, then the next step is working out specific details. Then the agreement has to be made. And you can tell that they aren't even at the first step of agreeing on general stuff. So, without a definite meeting time in the near future (or we haven't been told about it yet), you can tell that the process is going to be awhile yet.
The first problem is Spring Training being in jeopardy. It's always an important time for young and new players to play on an "official" level, as well as good indicators for key players' health and status. If an agreement isn't made until March, for example, that would leave limited time before Opening Day. Of course, then Opening Day would be pushed back to make room for some Spring Training, leaving us with less than 162 games.
Basically, it's a big sign that we aren't going to be playing 162 games this season. That really, really stinks, especially for the Cubs, who really need to use 2022 to judge the state of their team. How many games less? I'm willing to say even 30 days less. That's a big chunk, if you think about it.
Again, I'm not trying to be pessimistic, and I'm personally hoping some miracle takes place and perhaps an agreement will be made early February but based on what we're seeing it's hard to see it happening that soon.
So, I'm prepared for another *similar* 2020 season, but hopefully a little more normal. That makes me even more glad that the Cubs already addressed several needed areas before the lockout happened, so they're not scrambling at the last minute to get players.
Anyway, that's all the discouraging news I have for now, so I'll find something happier for later.
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