At this point in a lockout, I've discussed a ton of different stuff in relation to the Cubs, and I really hope this lockout ends soon so we can get back to baseball activity and Spring Training doesn't get cancelled. But fortunately, there are still some things for me to go over, including the Cubs' third base problem.
The Cubs had a combination of Wisdom, Bote, Duffy, and Bryant at third in 2021. Wisdom got the most time there, with the Cubs utilizing Bryant's' outfield capabilities and Duffy and Bote both taking over second base. In 2022, without Duffy and Bryant, that leaves only Wisdom and Bote to take over the third base duties. Elite? Nope. Capable of having third base taken care of? I think so.
I'm going to discuss the pros and cons of Bote and Wisdom, and also look at the remaining third base free agent and trade options and try to decide what the Cubs will be doing with third base.
I'll start with Wisdom. I've talked about him a lot in the past, so I won't go too into depth about him, but I'll mention a few interesting things.
- Wisdom had a .231/.305/.518 with a 115 wRC+ and a 2.3 WAR in 338 AB. What obviously contributed most to that was the slugging, which he certainly did well, as he hit 28 HR and 13 2B.
- His 16.2% Barrel% was in the top 7% of the league, his 114.2 MaxEV was in the top 8% of the league, and his 51.9% HardHit% was in the top 8% of the league. So, when he hit the ball, he hit it hard and for power.
- His giant 40.8% K rate was obviously one of the big struggles in 2021, as the MLB average is about 25%. He has a giant hole at the bottom of the strike zone that he most frequently whiffs on, and strikeouts contributed to the lower average.
- His fielding wasn't too bad, as he had a 6 OAA at third base. That was actually the second-best fielding in the infield at one position, only topped by Alcantara's 8 OAA.
Definitely some great areas, and not-so-great areas. The power is great, the strikeouts aren't. The fielding is great, the consistency in hitting is not. Before we start getting into his role, I'll spend a little bit talking about David Bote.
- Bote had a terrible year, batting .199/.276/.330 with a 64 wRC+ and a -0.6 WAR in 291 AB. There's not a whole lot positive you can say about his 2021 season, partly due to his shoulder injuries as well.
- However, his MavEV was even better than Wisdom, with a 115.6 MaxEV, which is in the top 4% of the league. That's the only "top" stat that he has, but his HardHit%, and BB rate are pretty good. His 22.4% K rate is fine.
- I did a more thorough evaluation of Bote here: What Is David Bote's Role With the 2022 Cubs?, so you can check that out.
- His fielding was basically average, as he posted a 0 OAA in 2021.
Again, in his past he has had some unique success. And, like Wisdom, also a lot of downsides.
As just an overview look, I would probably prefer Wisdom over Bote as everyday role at third base, but can we really count on Wisdom to be a reliable everyday third baseman? He goes through a lot of cold slumps, plus the strikeouts, but the fielding is great and when he hits well, he hits hard and far.
Fangraphs thinks that Bote will bounce back in 2022, but they also thought he'd be good in 2021 and he wasn't. But the good side of having two third base candidates is that if one doesn't work out, they have another. The problem is if neither one work out or if one has an injury and the other isn't doing well. Long term is another problem. I don't see Bote or Wisdom as long-term solutions, and while Morel and a couple other prospects are moving up, there isn't really a set third baseman for the future.
Exploring third base free agents and trade options is another topic. I originally liked the idea of Kyle Seager as a third base target for the Cubs, but since he announced his retirement, he isn't an option anymore. Here are some remaining third base FAs and trade options:
- Matt Carpenter, STL. Carpenter was reportedly "taking his time" in free agency, and although the idea of the Cubs being interested in him doesn't seem that captivating, he still is available.
- Phillip Evans, PIT. Another division rival's third baseman, Evans showed spurts of success in 2021, but couldn't keep it up.
- Other FA 3B include Duffy, Beckham, etc., but none that I can really see being more successful than Wisdom, or someone that the Cubs would be interested in.
- Matt Chapman, OAK. The Athletics want to shed payroll this offseason, and that includes trading pieces like Chapman. Would the Cubs be interested? I think it would depend on what the Athletics want for him.
- Jose Ramrirez, CLE. Ramirez was a runner-up for MVP in 2020, and certainly still has a lot of great talent. Getting him from the Guardians would be great for the Cubs, but with their team improving rapidly, I'm not sure if they want to trade him right now.
As you can see, the market for third baseman is somewhat thin. There is the slim possibility that the Cubs bring back Bryant, but I think that that is pretty unlikely. Other third base trade options would include Donaldson, Urshela, etc., but I'm not too sure that the Cubs want to trade for a third baseman.
As of now, I think that the most likely thing that the Cubs would do is to leave third base alone for now and address it either at the Trade Deadline or next offseason. Hopefully Wisdom figures out the strikeouts, and Bote sees some better success, and maybe third base will work fine. Maybe Morel will move up in 2023 and establish himself as the Cubs' next great third baseman. Anyway, at least you have a better idea of the Cubs' third base scenario, and while it is a position that will be addressed, we'll see to what extent.
I do have something very exciting coming on Wednesday, so stay tuned!
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