With the addition of Miley and Stroman this offseason, and having Hendricks and Mills already in the rotation, plus the younger pitchers like Alzolay, Steele and Thompson, we can sort the rotation out a little bit more now.
How the rotation looks of now:
- Stroman
- Miley
- Hendricks
- Mills
- Alzolay/Steele
And last year's starting rotation:
- Hendricks
- Davies
- Arrieta
- Williams
- Mills/Alzolay
So, yeah. Some definite changes from last year to this year, so we'll make some comparisons to evaluate how the Cubs rotation will do in 2022.
- 2021: Kyle Hendricks. 2021 was a rough year for the Cubs' "ace", as he posted a 4.77 ERA with a 16.7% K rate and a 43.1% GB rate. It's not like his stuff was that much different in 2021 than in 2020, but with a soft-pitching, contact-reliant pitcher like Hendricks, there really isn't that much room for error or slight changes in pitching. K-rate was down from 20-22% average to a low 16.7%, meaning his pitches were more often hit than taken as a strike. BB rate was up, as well, being a 5.6% compared to a 2-4% in the last couple years. And HardH rate was also up, being a large 33% compared to a 26-30% average. So, he declined *just slightly* in his pitching, and had pretty bad results.
- 2021: Zach Davies. His awful year was very unexpected, as he posted a small 2.73 ERA in 2020, but he fell apart in 2021, having a 5.78 ERA, 17.1% K rate, *11.2% BB rate*, and a 42.5% GB rate. The most noticeable thing in his performance was the extremely large walk rate, leading us to believe his control was very noticeably off. The HardH rate was very high as well, being a large 42.8% rate. That's not good for a groundball-reliant pitcher like Davies, and between that and the lack of control...well, he's a free agent now.
- 2021: Jake Arrieta. He posted a 6.88 ERA with the Cubs before they released him, and he continued his downward slide with the Padres. His season was simply awful and was certainly not the pitcher he was in a Cubs uniform before. Bad control, walks, hard hit rate, and general contact really was his downfall, and I'm not going to even go into depth about all his pitching woes. Simply put, I'm glad he's not in the Cubs rotation for 2022.
- 2021: Trevor Williams. One of the "not-so-terrible" pitchers for the Cubs in 2021 was Williams. He had his games (5 out of 13 played with Cubs) where he fell apart and allowed tons of runs. Other times, he could dominate the other team and pitch a great start. He ended his time with the Cubs with a 5.06 ERA, 46.6% GB rate and a 22.2% K rate. Mainly hard contact is what gave him bad results, but he still finished the year with a 4.35 ERA after being traded to the Mets.
- 2021: Alec Mills. A heavily contact-reliant, soft-throwing pitcher much like Hendricks and Davies, he also had somewhat of a struggle in 2021. He finished the season with a 5.07 ERA, 51.3% GB rate, 16.8% K rate, and a 6.6% BB rate. Not much really was off in his performance, with the HardH rate and BB rate both being down from his career average. Honestly, he had a good year based on most numbers, except that more hits and runs were recorded. That can be attributed to a topic we'll discuss in just a minute: defense.
- 2021: Adbert Alzolay. You can read more on him from an evaluation we did on him here: Evaluating Adbert Alzolay's 2021 Season (cubbiesgazette.blogspot.com), but in short, he hasn't quite adapted to the MLB rotation stage yet. He posted a 4.58 ERA overall, with 21 GS.
There you have it. And the more I look at it, the more I realize how awful the Cubs' rotation really was in 2021. Of course, others like Sampson, Steele and Thompson all made starts as well, but since these were the main ones, I figured I'd mainly talk about them.
One overwhelming problem leading the rotations' struggles was defense. The Cubs basically had an entire rotation of contact-reliant pitchers and didn't have a defense that was strong enough to help it out. Baez, a gold-glover previously, made tons of errors for the Cubs this year. Alcantara, Romine, Wisdom and Duffy weren't the best defensively either, making it really tough to support the rotation.
That is an important issue, though, because the Cubs 2022 rotation is largely contact based as well. If the Cubs' can't step up their defense, they just might have the same problems that they did in 2021.
Here is the Cubs' projected 2022 rotation:
- 2022: Marcus Stroman. Stroman sported a 50.8% GB rate in 2021, so he is definitely a contact-reliant pitcher. His K rate was 21.6%, so he has some strikeout stuff, but not over-powering. I expect him to be very good for the Cubs in 2022, as long as the defense helps him out. If they do, he'll hold his side of the bargain.
- 2022: Wade Miley. Another groundball-pitcher, as he had a 49.4% GB rate in 2021. He's a very durable pitcher, though, one that can go a solid six-seven innings and doesn't really get injured. He averages a 18% K rate, so not over-powering, but solid.
- 2022: Kyle Hendricks. I think if Hendricks adjusts his control *just slightly* and if the defense is better, he'll be the reliable pitcher the Cubs are used to.
- 2022: Alec Mills. Like I mentioned earlier, his stuff wasn't bad in 2021, and actually had some improvement, so if he builds of that and the *defense*, like we've talked about, he'll be the No.4-5 kind of guy.
- 2022: Adbert Alzolay. I can't say for sure if he'll be in the Opening Day rotation, but my guess is that he'll get some starts throughout the year. If he can figure out the lefty thing, and also keep the strikeouts and control coming, he's got potential to be a solid pitcher.
- 2022: Justin Steele. Again, not too sure if he'll be in the starting rotation but expect him to get some starts as well. I love his pitching, and I really think he'll be a great rotation piece.
Perhaps Thompson, Killian or Marquez will get a couple starts as well in 2022, but these are the main rotation pieces the Cubs have right now.
If I can say anything in conclusion, it is this: the success of the Cubs' rotation will only come if the defense is much better than last year. Done.
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