Evaluating Adbert Alzolay's 2021 Season

 

As we talked about in the previous article, the Cubs rotation definitely needs some help. Adbert Alzolay was supposed to really cement his spot in the 2021 rotation, but...he struggled, and now we're unsure about his role in 2022, even though he will make the bullpen, if the rotation is out of his reach right now. 

Adbert Alzolay is the kind of guy you only want the best for. His dynamic personality and competitive nature, along with spurts of real potential shows a possibility of what the future might hold for him.

Alzolay pitched a career high of 125 innings, having only pitching 21 innings in 2020. So yes, there is always a learning curve with a big starting workload.

There are some problems, however, and we’re going to look at some of those problems and how he can become a dominant starting pitcher.

Alzolays's Overall 2021 Stat Line:

• 5-13 W-L
• 4.58 ERA
• 1.62 WHIP
• 29 Games, 21 Games Started
• 125.2 IP
• 112 H, 66 R, 64 ER, 25 HR
• 34 BB, 128 K

The first main thing we see is Alzolay’s 4.58 ERA.(I don't consider wins-losses really a good gauge of how good a pitcher is). Considering the MLB ERA average in 2021 was 4.26 ERA, his was not awful, but....this his combined starting pitching and relief pitching ERA. Focusing on his starting pitching, he had a 5.16 ERA, which for an everyday starting pitcher is a little too high.

 In contrast, he had a 1.40 ERA in relief pitching, which can certainly be considered very effective and dominant. The problem is, the Cubs wanted Alzolay to have the role of a starting pitcher.

 Let's look at some other stats of his.

25 HR. A big problem, not just without Alzolay, but with most of the Cubs starting pitching, is homeruns. Sure, the average pitcher will allow some, but Alzolay ranks 25th (out of all 828 pitchers used this year) in most home runs allowed. (Hendricks and Davies are 6th and 22nd.)

It is worthwhile noting that most of Alzolay’s high numbers come from left-handed batters. 

• 20 of the 25 home runs came from left-handed batters(!)

• 20 of the 34 walks were issued to left-handed batters.

• Only 53 of his 128 strikeouts were against left-handed batters.

• Left-handed batters hit at an average of .269 with a 1.44 WHIP, whereas right-handed batters hit .206 with a 0.94 WHIP.

This is from a catcher’s perspective of batters’ average against Alzolay. Notice the inflated average on the left side, where left-handed batters sweet spot is)

So, Alzolay is pretty good against righties, but against lefties...that’s definitely an area for improvement. 

About runners on base...it is interesting to note that if runners are at 1st and 3rd, 2nd and 3rd, or 2nd, batters hit at an average of .139. But if bases are loaded, there are runners at 1st and 2nd, just 1st, or just 3rd, batters hit at an average at .329. Quite a big difference!

There are just so many interesting stats to analyze, we’ll just go over a couple more. 

First, Alzolay throws 6 different pitches: slider, 2 seamer, 4 seam fastball, changeup, curveball and cutter. Here are some stats:

• Slider:  .181 average, 36 hits, 7 homers, 78 strikeouts  (Used 778 times)

• 2 Seamer:  .310 average, 45 hits, 8 homers, 21 strikeouts ( Used 528 times)

• 4 Seam Fastball: .267 average, 16 hits, 6 homers, 16 strikeouts (Used 361 times)

• Changeup:   .135 average, 5 hits, 1 homer, 9 strikeouts (Used 138 times)

• Cutter:   .258 average, 8 hits, 2 homers, 4 strikeouts (Used 129 times)

• Curveball   1.000 average, 2 hits, 1 homer, 0 strikeouts (Used 21 times)

So we see the most effective pitch Alzolay throws would be the changeup, though Alzolay only used it 138 times. The slider is his personal favorite pitch, great strikeout results, but also 7 homers. 2 Seamer looks pretty bad, considering how often he used it.

Overall, I feel like Alzolay is just having a hard time adjusting to starting pitching in the big leagues. The 25% strikeout rate to 7% walk rate is good, the power is there (89.3 MPH average), but there is one main thing: WORK ON THE LEFTIES!

In 2020, Alzolay showed he could be a great pitcher. In 2021, he showed that in the bullpen and some spurts in the rotation.

What is missing? I think Tommy Hottovy has let down the team a little bit, given how poorly Alzolay, Thompson, and Steele(although he had an amazing last start) fared in the rotation. These ought to be the guys that are making huge steps to carrying the team in the future, and...they're not. Yet.

Maybe its time to up the pitching staff? Giants and Rays do a great time helping all sorts of pitchers...maybe one of their pitching staff wants to join the Cubs?

What I see in Alzolay is the great swing and miss stuff missing in the Cubs pitching staff. I can see Alzolay making the rotation, struggling at first, then settling down to be an amazing pitcher for the Chicago Cubs.(We'll see if the Cubs get rid of Hottovy). If not a starting pitcher, he will make a dominant relief pitcher. Either way, I see Alzolay having a bright future ahead.

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