How Does The Rotation Pan Out For The Cubs?

As I mentioned in the previous article, the Cubs NEED some pitching help. Specifically, in the rotation...so that's what we're going to discuss today: how is the rotation going to look and be in 2022?

Lets start with pitchers that are already in the rotation. Hendricks struggled this past season with a 4.81 ERA, and while not his worst, is worse than his career 3.12 ERA. The homeruns really got him, as he surrendered 31 homeruns this year. 

As a pitcher that pitches relatively softly and relies heavily on soft contact to get outs, there isn't much room for mistakes, as he does not have the swing and miss stuff that ace pitchers have. But, unless they trade him, he's going to be in the rotation, so lets just hope he has a good year. But as far as being the Cubs ace...how about they find an actually GOOD pitcher?

Alec Mills had a 5.07 ERA this year over 20 starts, and like Hendricks, relies mainly on soft contact because of his slower pitching. His career ERA is 4.47, so he had a relatively off year. He surrendered 16 homeruns, so not a huge number of homers, but also allowed 137 hits, so that ended up being his main problem. Mills has another year left of Team Control, so he also will probably be in the rotation. He is more like a no.5 guy, not your top 3.

Who makes the rotation between Alzolay, Thompson and Steele is another discussion. My feeling is that Alzolay will make the rotation on Opening Day, Thompson and Steele in the bullpen, but Steele will make the rotation in the course of the season.

 Now this also depends on how many starting pitchers the Cubs sign or trade for this offseason-more on that in a minute. If the Cubs only get 1 good pitcher, perhaps Alzolay and Steele will make the rotation (personally I think Thompson is a better multi-inning reliever), but I believe the Cubs will get at least 2 decent pitchers this offseason.

Now about free agent pitchers the Cubs can sign. (I'm not going to discuss trades right now, because those are more unpredictable.) Here is a list of all starting pitchers who are free agents this year

Brett Anderson (34)
Chase Anderson (34)
Tyler Anderson (32)
Chris Archer (33)
Jake Arrieta (36)
Trevor Bauer (31) – can opt out of remaining two years, $62MM
Dylan Bundy (29)
Trevor Cahill (33)
Alex Cobb (34)
Johnny Cueto (36) — $22MM club option ($5MM buyout)
Zach Davies (29)
Anthony DeSclafani (32)
Danny Duffy (33)
Mike Fiers (37)
Kevin Gausman (31)
Jon Gray (30)
Zack Greinke (38)
J.A. Happ (39)
Matt Harvey (33)
Andrew Heaney (31)
Felix Hernandez (36)
Rich Hill (42)
Merrill Kelly (32) — $4.25MM club option ($500K buyout)
Clayton Kershaw (34)
Yusei Kikuchi (31) — Mariners can exercise four-year, $66MM extension; if not, Kikuchi has one-year, $13MM player option
Kwang-Hyun Kim (33)
Corey Kluber (36)
Wade LeBlanc (37)
Jon Lester (38)
Michael Lorenzen (30)
Jordan Lyles (31)
Carlos Martinez (30) — $17MM club option ($500K buyout; contract also contains $18MM club option for 2023)
Steven Matz (31)
Wade Miley (35) — $10MM club option ($1MM buyout)
Tommy Milone (35)
Matt Moore (33)
Daniel Norris (29)
James Paxton (33)
Wily Peralta (33)
Martin Perez (31)
Michael Pineda (33)
Jose Quintana (33)
Robbie Ray (30)
Garrett Richards (34) — $10MM club option
Tanner Roark (35)
Carlos Rodon (29)
Eduardo Rodriguez (29)
Tyson Ross (35)
Aaron Sanchez (29)
Max Scherzer (37)
Matt Shoemaker (35)
Drew Smyly (33)
Marcus Stroman (30)
Noah Syndergaard (29)
Julio Teheran (31)
Jose Urena (30)
Vince Velasquez (30)
Justin Verlander (39)
Michael Wacha (30)
Alex Wood (31)

That's A LOT OF PITCHERS.
Now who should the Cubs target? I think there should be a few major requirements.

1. Has swing and miss stuff. This is missing in the Cubs rotation: a pitcher that can throw 97 mph and strike batters out. At least one pitcher they sign NEEDS to have this.
2. Has durability. The Cubs need a pitcher that can last at least 6 innings a start, and do that for at least almost all his starts.
3. Isn't prone to injury. Ok, sometimes it can be avoided, but it shouldn't be consistently happening. He should be able to stay healthy all season.
4. Is relatively young. In other words, not over 34 or so. The Cubs probably won't make the playoffs this year, so they need a pitcher that can last them at least a couple years.
5. Isn't TOO expensive. The Cubs might spend quite a bit on 1 player, but they can't afford to on many.

Now who would fit this description?

Half the pitchers are out because they are getting older, some pitchers like Duffy and Syndergaard have been shown to be prone to injury...so who?

• Marcus Stroman would be an obvious choice. Only 30, quietly dominant, staying healthy...

• Dylan Bundy struggled this year, but he doesn't allow a whole lot of hits, and homeruns are only a little bit of concern. He's only 29, stays mostly healthy, and had a great 2020 season. Maybe?

• Kevin Gausman fits all the boxes as well. 31, having a exceptional year, a lot of Ks balances the hits.

• Carlos Rodon is obviously on a lot of team's wish list. The price tag might be high, but a lot of strikeouts and not many hits and homeruns makes him a coveted prize. And he's only 29.

• Robbie Ray is of course a tantalizing option, but I think the Cubs will spend on lower-cost quality pitchers.

• Eduardo Rodriguez is another interesting option. He's a consistent LHP who has a lot of strikeouts, but slightly too many hits. 

• Willy Peralta is a possibility as well. He had a great year with the Tigers, and he doesn't give up many homers or hits.

So what could I see being a relaistic rotation in 2022?

1. Stroman
2. Peralta
3. Hendricks
4. Alzolay
5. Mills or Rodriguez 

If need be, let Mills go and get Eduardo Rodriguez, another LHP in the rotation can't hurt!

So, we'll see what ends up happening: maybe the Cubs will go out and sign Max Scherzer, I don't know, but this is simply my opinion, so enjoy!

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