Enjoying some nice cold Wisconsin winter right now, with single digit temperatures...anyway, it's the kind of weather you like just burying yourself in blankets and dreaming of the Cubs winning another World Series.
Yesterday, I posted a poll of who would you rather have back to the Cubs, Castellanos or Schwarber, and Schwarber got the win with a 75% to 25% vote. So, based on that opinion alone, it seems like Cubs fans would like to give Schwarber another chance, and get him back in a Cubs jersey. I'm going to take a look at this question from a couple different viewpoints, and also what brought up this question to begin with.
It started when MLBTR laid out possible landing spots for Schwarber and Castellanos, and the Cubs were listed as one of the options that should be seriously considered. Here is their take on the Cubs and them:
The Cubs’ decision to non-tender Schwarber looked foolish in 2021, but I don’t expect them to respond by signing him to a large free agent contract. Castellanos was a popular, productive player in his brief time with the Cubs, and he could supplant Jason Heyward in right field. But even if Castellanos’ demands dropped into the Cubs’ comfort zone (probably three years), the club would likely be reluctant to surrender their second-round draft pick. If somehow Castellanos is not liking the offers (and perhaps the season starts late), perhaps he could pull a Keuchel/Kimbrel and sign after the draft. In that case I could see the Cubs becoming interested, but it’s a long shot.
Other sources were also mentioning it as "a long shot" but yet a definite "possibility". They didn't mention much about Schwarber, but I definitely consider him a possibility as well. So, I'm going to discuss the pros and cons of both and see where we get after that.
Kyle Schwarber
Schwarber was very surprisingly non-tendered by the Cubs last offseason and ended up putting up his best offensive year of his career. Between time with the Nationals and Red Sox he hit .266/.374/.554 with a 145 wRC+ and a 3.1 WAR. That far surpasses his off 2020 season where he hit .188/.308/.393 with a 89 wRC+. He ranked top in the league with HardH%, EV, Barrel%, XSLG, BB%, and other similar things. In other words, he can hit hard and far and take his walks too.
His career average is .237/.343/.493 with a 118 wRC+. He shows great slugging ability and would give the Cubs a familiar power-hitter. There are a couple areas that aren't so great.
The strikeouts are always a bit of a concern, reaching as high as 30.9% in his career, but being 27% in 2021. Of course, the walks are good, so that does help make up for it, but it still is a concern. The fielding has a lot to be desired as well, having a -10 OAA in 2021, and not much better earlier in his career. That's in the bottom 1% of the league, so not good at all.
If the Cubs signed him, he would provide great power and walks, but not good fielding. He definitely fits a DH profile, which if it is instituted in the NL in 2022 could be an area for him with the Cubs. He's also a relatively non-expensive option, if the Cubs are concerned about that.
Nick Castellanos
Castellanos signed with the Reds in 2020 but opted to become a free agent this offseason. He hit .309/.362/.576 with a 140 wRC+ and a 4.2 WAR. Similar to Schwarber in a lot of ways, he is a top ranked player in XSLG, XBA, and WOBA. His BB and K rate are pretty average, being 7% and 20.7% respectively.
His career average is .278/.329/.486 with a 115 wRC+. He has great power, like Schwarber, and is coming off a stellar year. And again, like Schwarber, there are downsides.
Fielding is a problem, although slightly better than Schwarber. He had a -6 OAA in 2021, with his career worst being -23 OAA in 2018 with the Tigers. He has progressed since then, having a -2 OAA with his time with the Cubs. So, that actually does show he is more comfortable fielding with the Cubs.
Again, his profile is more like a DH, although if he is as good fielding with the Cubs if they sign him, he might bounce between the two and be a backup for Heyward. (Or other way around?) He has been reportedly looking for a 7-8 year deal, but with the Cubs seeming reluctant to sign players to long deals, that by itself would make it unlikely. However, recent sources have said Castellanos would likely accept a 3-4 year deal. That would be more up the Cubs' alley.
Conclusion
Overall, it seems like Schwarber is the slightly better offensive player, having higher wRC+, etc., but Castellanos has a higher WAR. They are both very similar offensively, but Schwarber has slightly more power. Fielding considered, Castellanos is the better player, but with the DH role up in the air, it's hard to factor that in too much.
Price wise, Schwarber would probably be cheaper, but it's pretty hard to say. With the new CBA deal (whenever they get it done), some things might change, so price might affect the overall deal.
Who do I prefer the Cubs to get back? It's really tough. In some ways I'd love to get Schwarber back, but I would really like to Castellanos. So, if I really had to choose, I'd probably pick Castellanos, even though I certainly wouldn't be opposed to getting Schwarber.
That's all for now, so have a great day!
Comments
Post a Comment