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Fangraphs' Cubs Predictions, Cubs Pitchers Deadlift Fad, and Other Cubs Tidbits

 


Yesterday, Fangraphs came out with their Cubs ZiPS predictions (a method they use to predict a player's performance), and it came with some surprises and some doubts on my part.

I'll list some more notable players' predictions including Hendricks, Wisdom, Schwindel and others.

  • Willson Contreras is predicted to hit .240/.339/.442 with 20 HR and a 2.6 WAR. He is set to have the highest WAR on the team besides Marcus Stroman, and so a pretty solid season for the Cubs' main backstop. I see this as pretty realistic for him.
  • Patrick Wisdom is predicted to hit .225/.300/.488 with 29 HR and a 2.0 WAR. He is predicted to have 387 AB, which I think is a little higher than he'll end up getting. Overall, I'm pretty surprised to see them so optimistic about him, given his strikeouts and cold streaks, plus them giving him a total of 157 Ks, but I hope they're right.
  • Ian Happ is predicted to hit .239/.341/.456 with 25 HR and a 1.8 WAR, so they're not expecting him to have a hot season, but merely a decent one for him. If they are right, that means he is basically an average player and defender for the Cubs who gets a lot of at-bats (461 AB predicted).
  • Frank Schwindel is predicted to hit .267/.305/.474 with 22 HR and a 1.2 WAR, so a definite step back from his performance in 2021, but also not a bad player. I mean, he was not expected to do that well in 2021, and certainly overperformed, but I expect a lot of that to stay with him in 2022. If he does hit as expected, it does make me question if the Cubs still have first base as an area to fill.
  • Nico Hoerner is expected to hit .277/.341/.370 with a 1.3 WAR, which is better than Schwindel, Frazier, Gomes, etc., so according to them he is going to be a great player for the Cubs in 2022. Again, not a power hitter, but still a valuable contact hitter and defender.
  • Marcus Stroman is projected to be the Cubs' best player in 2022, having a predicted 3.60 ERA and a 3.5 WAR. If that is the case, I'm sure excited to see his success, but if the infield defense does not improve then I can see that number inflating some.
  • Wade Miley is projected to be slightly better than Hendricks, with a 3.97 ERA with a 2.4 WAR compared to Hendricks' predicted 4.20 ERA with a 2.3 WAR. So, both are solid rotation pieces that will add the veteran presence and durability.  
Those are the main ones that I'll mention, and if you want to see all of them for yourself, check it out here: 2022 ZiPS Projections: Chicago Cubs | FanGraphs Baseball

They mentioned this on Kilian and Alzolay, so I thought I'd mention it here: "Like Steamer, ZiPS is big on Caleb Kilian, seeing him as someone who is likely to be a contributor very quickly. Adbert Alzolay allowed too many homers, but ZiPS saw him as one of the game’s unluckiest pitchers in terms of round-trippers, giving up 25 versus only 18 zHR. In that department, he was behind only Andrew Heaney at +9. His walk rate has improved, something that ZiPS sees as sustainable. Kilian’s unlikely to be rushed into the team’s 2022 plans, but Alzolay gets a projection right around league-average, putting the Cubs ahead of the game for their fourth starter."

Fangraphs has also published an article lately on Caleb Kilian that really caught my eye, so check it out here: Cubs Prospect Caleb Kilian Has Begun to Command Our Attention | FanGraphs Baseball

Apparently, the Cubs pitching org has gotten into this unofficial deadlifting challenge, with Manuel Rodriguez, Ethan Roberts, Max Bain, and now Adbert Alzolay all showing off the pounds they can lift. Check out a couple ones here:

 


Pretty cool. Wish I could do that.

Anyways, that's all for now, so have a great day! 

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