Strikeouts are not the best way to evaluate a pitcher and how effective they are, because some pitchers have great success in not allowing many runs with being a groundball-reliant pitcher. However, for the purpose of this article, I'm going to give you a look at the K% of the Cubs' rotation and why or why not that is good.
Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks had a 16.4% K rate in 2021, which Statcast puts in the bottom 8% of MLB.
Wade Miley. Miley had a 18.1% K rate in 2021, which Statcast puts in the bottom 15% of MLB.
Marcus Stroman. Stroman had a 21.7% K rate in 2021, which Statcast puts in the bottom 35% of MLB.
Adbert Alzolay. Alzolay had a 24.7% K rate in 2021, which Statcast puts in the bottom 58% of MLB.
Alec Mills. Mills had a 16.8% K rate in 2021, which Statcast puts in the bottom 9% of MLB.
Justin Steele. Steele had a 23.8% K rate in 2021, which Statcast puts in the bottom 52% of MLB.
The best K rate in 2021 was Alzolay, closely followed by Steele. Hendricks and Mills were at the bottom, with Miley a little ahead and Stroman in the middle. If you want an idea of who is in the top 1% of the league, think Josh Hader or Jacob deGrom. The Cubs' rotation isn't quite there yet.
What K rates do tell you about a pitcher is how well they can deceive a batter into swinging at or taking a strike. What is the main "science" behind that "deceiving a batter?" It comes down to the spin, movement, and velocity of the ball. However, there is so much data and information to process with all that, that I won't bore you with it.
I will say that a few of the Cubs' rotation have some pretty decent spin/movement rates.
- Kyle Hendricks has a 91-percentile curveball spin rate (in the top 9% of the league).
- Marcus Stroman has a 79-percentile fastball spin rate (in the top 21% of the league)
- Adbert Alzolay has a 75-percentile curveball spin rate (in the top 25% of the league)
- Justin Steele has a 93-percentile fastball spin (in the top 7% of the league)
But just because you have a good spin/movement doesn't mean you are automatically going to be striking people out. It also requires good velocity. Here's the average FB velocity for the Cubs' rotation:
- Kyle Hendricks: 87.3 MPH
- Wade Miley: 89.9 MPH
- Marcus Stroman: 92.4 MPH
- Adbert Alzolay: 94 MPH
- Alec Mills: 88.7 MPH
- Justin Steele: 93.1 MPH
As you see, Alzolay has the fastest average FB velocity of 94 MPH. The Cubs featured three of the slowest pitchers in all of MLB in 2021: Hendricks, Mills, and Davies. Of course, Davies is gone, but they still have Hendricks and Mills.
For sake of example, take a look at Jacob deGrom's stats for this:
- 45.1% K rate in 2021
- Average 99.2 MPH FB velocity
- FB spin: top 13% of the league
- CB spin: top 20% of the league
- Chase rate: top 1% of the league
I mean, when you see the comparison with arguably baseball's best pitcher, you realize the Cubs rotation still has plenty of room for improvement.
So, what needs to be done? If the Cubs want to compete, they need at least one or two strikeout pitchers. Pitchers that have high-velo, high-spin/movement, good chase rate. I'm not saying you have to have all strikeout pitchers, because you honestly do need pitchers like Stroman or Miley to balance things out. And like I said earlier, I don't think the Cubs need strikeout pitchers because they are the only kind that succeed, but rather because it throws in solid variety and is valuable to winning games.
However, there is a negative side to that: injuries. Rodon is that kind of strikeout pitcher, and he got injured. Same with deGrom and Glasnow. I'm not saying it's inevitable, but the likelihood increases. But teams just need to take the risk, because when they're healthy, they're invaluable.
Marquez might be able to get that role in the Cubs rotation (maybe as soon as 2023?), and maybe if the Cubs add one between now and 2023, they'll be in a position to compete in 2023.
So yes, the Cubs need strikeout starters. Yes, there is an injury risk. No, the Cubs don't really have one in the rotation right now. Should they target one? Yes. (Glasnow, perhaps?)
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