Because we have a break in all the baseball activity and signings that would usually be happening right now, I thought it would be a good time to consider some possible trade scenarios starting with Ian Happ.
Why Happ? Happ has been playing with the Cubs since 2017, and since then it's been a bit of a roller coaster. Although having a 100+ wRC+ in each of his MLB seasons, he's been a remarkably streaky player. In 2021, he started his year very cold, and then in the latter half of the season, he picked up the pace and did extremely well.
In September/October alone, he batted .317/.405/.615 with a 167 wRC+, which is more than enough to cement your place in a team's outfield. But overall, in 2021, he batted .226/.323/.434 with a 103 wRC+, which makes him a barely average player.
In 2020, everyone thought he was finally breaking out for real, batting .258/.361/.505 with a 130 wRC+, but that didn't translate over into the 2021 season. So, based on his history of "breaking out" at the end of the season, can we assume that he'll be batting like that in the first half of the 2022 season? I don't think we can.
Of course, there are positives all over with Happ, given him being an average player with power, a switch hitter that can hit all over the field, a pretty inexpensive player, and a really likable personality. But you can't be that anchor player the Cubs need in the outfield if you're only successful half of the season.
As I've discussed before, the outfield is composed of mainly reclamation projects: Ortega, Frazier, Hermosillo, and Ramirez. Heyward is an under-producing, over-payed outfielder, and then you have Happ. It's no question that the Cubs could use a real anchor in the outfield (like Schwarber was for years) and I think they really wanted Happ to be that. He's shown he can be that, but only in spurts. That's not what the Cubs had in mind.
That leads us to the question; what should the Cubs do with Happ? I really only see two options, so I'll talk about both.
Keep Him
Happ is not a free agent until 2024, so Happ still has plenty of time with the Cubs. He also has 2 MiLB options left, so that's a plus as well. The Cubs certainly have the easiest option of just keeping him. I don't think the Cubs are counting on Happ's success in 2022 (at least the first half) because of the number of outfielders they brought in this offseason.
They have the viable option of keeping Happ (at least for now) and if he's being non-productive, put someone like Hermosillo or Frazier out there instead. It's not like Happ has to be out there because he's the only outfielder, there are other ones that could take his spot when he's not hitting well. Then, when he's back to being on fire, put him back out there and reap the results.
That would mean they would be employing a platoon of sorts in the outfield. Happ mostly plays CF and LF, and Frazier, Hermosillo, Ortega, and Ramirez can all play one of those spots, so replacing him wouldn't be hard. The interesting part of that would be if a replacement for Happ (let's say Hermosillo) starts to go on a hitting streak, plus the fact he's an excellent outfielder, and then he would now "own" the spot, thus leaving Happ out of the picture.
That would certainly be great, but with that picture in mind, it makes Happ's future as it is pretty up in the air. There is no guarantee of anything in the outfield right now, because of the unpredictable hitting of all the outfielders (including Happ).
Trade Him
This is the other option, and would avoid absolute confusion in the outfield, and also would get the Cubs potentially another player (likely prospect) that would be more consistent. But there's no guarantee that a trade would really work to the Cubs' advantage. Does Happ really just need another year to finally figure everything out? Would the outfield function fine without a "key" player in Happ? Would other teams actually want Happ? These are questions that would have to surround a potential trade of Happ.
Can I see the Cubs actually trading Happ? I honestly can't see them trading him before the season starts. If they did trade him at all in 2022, I think it would be around Trade Deadline, after they have been able to see how he's playing. But then again, if he puts up terrible numbers the first part of the season, he'd have more trade value now than he would at Trade Deadline.
So, honestly, I feel like the Cubs are going to roll the dice and keep Happ for at least another season, or at least until Davis moves up or the Cubs get a better core outfield. That's my thoughts on it, and if you have any thoughts you would like to share, leave a comment below.
Trading happ to either the Orioles or the Giants
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