Hoerner is now entering his third full season with the Cubs. He debuted in 2019 with high results, batting .282/.305/.436 in 78 AB. 2020 was an off year for him, as he batted .222/.312/.259 with a 61 wRC in 108 AB. But then in 2021 he batted .302/.382/.369 with a 104 wRC in 149 AB.
However, injuries kept him from getting more at-bats, as he dealt with oblique injuries throughout the season. There is a lot of data to sort through, and also a lot of puzzle pieces to put together regarding his future. We'll start with some positive things I see in his production:
- The strikeout rate is unbelievable in a good sense. He had a 14.7% K rate in 2021, and a 15.9% in his MLB career. He's simply the kind of guy that just doesn't strikeout, which is a good thing. He swung at pitches only 47.7% of the time, and made contact when swinging 82.3 % of the time. So great zone control overall.
- He also had a knack for hitting pitches whether they were inside or outside of the zone. He made contact 73.1% of the time when swinging at a pitch outside of the zone, so that's pretty impressive. When he swung at pitches inside the zone, he made contact 89.2% of the time, so that is honestly a great plus in his hitting in general.
- Although not a power hitter (we'll talk about that soon), he was a great contact hitter. He hit only singles and doubles in 2021 (seriously, no homers), hitting 35 singles and 10 doubles in 149 AB. Contact hitting is great, to some extent, but one has to realize that this is all Hoerner does- hit singles and doubles.
- Fielding was a big strong suit for Hoerner, who played mostly 2nd in 2021. One interesting thing to note was that he made 30 OOZ plays (plays made out of the normal 2nd base zone). That right there shows his great ability to snag balls, read the ball, and make hard plays. He played shortstop and outfield a little bit in 2021, but it's clear that 2nd seems to be his strong suit.
Now, a big area of debate of how Hoerner fits into the Cubs plans is his big lack of power-hitting. He has only 3 homers in 335 AB, and although it's not a bad thing to not hit homers, power-hitters are a valuable thing to a team. He can hit doubles, to be sure, but homers and general hard-hit rate are not enough to be classified as a "power-hitter".
One must remember that Madrigal is also a similar player as Hoerner, and that really mixes things up. Because Madrigal plays only 2nd, which is Hoerner's strong suit, and he is the type of player that doesn't strikeout and hits only doubles and singles, so basically the Cubs have two Hoerners, or two Madrigals, depending on how you look at it.
Madrigal is basically penciled in at 2nd, and that means that Hoerner would be placed at shortstop. But if that were to be the case, that means the Cubs would have two soft-hitters in their infield and line-up. Madrigal is not as good as a defender as Hoerner at 2nd, so that means the defense wouldn't be as good.
Another fact that comes into the picture is that the Cubs have been connected to top-tier shortstop free agents, which means someone like Corey Seager would be then playing shortstop full time, and that would leave Hoerner without a full-time position. A bench-role? I don't like the idea. Hoerner is a very valuable defender, and he can have good batting results, but if the infield is occupied by Seager and Madrigal, then that would inevitably leave him with a bench role.
But there is a problem with Hoerner that leaves another piece to the puzzle. We don't know when he's going to be injured. Based on the problems that we saw in 2021, it's a grim probability that he is going to be an injury-prone player. That doesn't mean he's going to be always injured, but it means he has a higher probability to be injured.
So, where would he fit in the Cubs' 2022 plans? If the Cubs don't end up getting a free agent shortstop like Seager, then they would be relying on Hoerner staying healthy all season and being able to be the primary shortstop. And then of course the "two identical soft-hitters" problem.
It really is a complicated situation. Bringing up the idea- should the Cubs trade Madrigal or Hoerner? If Hoerner, then they'd be losing a prospect they developed for years and proved to be a capable player. If Madrigal, they'd be losing their Trade Deadline pick-up and (planned on) second baseman. But, after being a big Hoerner fan, I'd almost rather trade Madrigal and keep Hoerner at second. What are the advantages? When healthy, he is a better defender than Madrigal and hits just as well.
Perhaps the Cubs could get a couple prospects or a player for Madrigal? The whole situation is confusing, and I'll leave it up to Hoyer and the Cubs to figure it out. My solution would be to trade Madrigal, but perhaps they'll figure out a better one.
That's all for now, folks, although I'll probably have a news article out later.
Comments
Post a Comment