How Will Top Prospects Affect the 2022 Cubs?

 

Alright, I know I'm a day late with this article, but other things got in the way, so today it is. The Braves won their World Series (I'm really happy about it), and now the offseason begins. There will be a few days where free agents cannot sign with any other teams but their own team, then the real "hot stove" begins. 

I'm excited for the Cubs' offseason, since it is obvious they will be active in free agents and trades. Expect a lot of news in the next few weeks, although there will probably not be any major signings, since the CBA negotiations are not done yet.

Now, on to the topic for today: how will the Cubs' top 3 prospects (all in Triple A, that is) affect the 2022 Cubs? Bryant, Baez, Schwarber and others came from the Cubs' farm system, so these prospects are certainly important in their affect on the team. The 3 prospects we will discuss are Brennen Davis, Miguel Amaya, and Brailyn Marquez.

Brennen Davis

2021 was an extremely exciting and remarkable year for Brennen Davis, who started at High A at the beginning of the year, and ended up at Triple A at the end of the year. He won MVP at the Futures Game, and simply just mashed in the minor leagues.

Overall this year, he batted .260/.375/.494 with 91 hits, 19 HR, and a .869 OPS in 350 AB. He batted the best in High A, which showed he was ready to move on and keep working on his good stuff against better pitching.

His stats show a surprisingly good mixture of both power and good contact, with his slugging being good, as well as his OBP. Both could use a little work, but overall, the talent is there.

The strikeouts are a concern, however. He struck out 118 times over 350 AB, which is over 50% K rate. It is worth while to note that most of those came in Double A, where he struck out 97 times over 266 AB, and in Triple A the strikeout rate was down to about 27%, which is much more normal.

So that is an indication of what could be a problem in the big leagues, but if his stint with Triple A is any indication of his real abilities, it would show an average strikeout rate, a exceptional walk rate (20%!), and good power and contact.

In Triple A, he hit .268/.397/.536 in 56 AB. Of course that doesn't show everything. He had 15 H, 4 HR, 11 BB, and only 15 K in those 56 AB. So, no wonder everyone is a fan of Brennen Davis. He really can hit and walk exceptionally well.

Now, how does he fit into the Cubs' plans foe 2022? He will receive a Spring Training invite, no doubt, and we'll be able to evaluate more then, but he will most likely start the year at Triple A. Notice I said start, not play the whole year at Triple A. I firmly believe Davis will be making his MLB debut in 2022, and if he mashes in the big leagues, I'll be inclined to believe he'll stay. 

It is somewhat doubtful that he would do as well as he does in Triple A in MLB, so I expect they'll just evaluate him when he debuts and plays a few more games, and then probably send him back to Triple A. But, and yes this is a crazy idea, what if he goes amazing in MLB and is hitting and walking like crazy...yes, he would be staying.

I believe Davis will be playing on the Cubs full time in 2023, and be their new star and leader of the next Cubs Era, but we'll see how much playing time he gets in the majors in 2022.

Miguel Amaya

Now, I can't fully evaluate Amaya correctly, because he played only limited games in 2021 in Double A, but he was set to go up to Triple A, then an injury happened, and next you know, he's out for the year.

The Cubs catching prospect, Amaya hit .215/.406/.304 in 79 AB in 2021 (only 23 games), and while he is good future part of the team, some of me wonders if he should be considered a trade piece. I'll explain more in a little bit.

Overall, I see a pretty decent catcher, nothing too outstanding, but also not bad. He walked 21 times and struck out 22 times in those 79 AB, so an average K rate (about 26%) and a great walk rate (about 25%). So you see right off the bat (no pun intended), about 50% of his production was at the plate, whether it was a walk or a strikeout. 

He did have 17 H and 1 HR in those AB as well, so overall I see great walks, great hitting (when he did hit the ball), but not a whole lot of power . That isn't a bad thing, but it lets you know what kind of player he is- a hit/walk kind of guy, not a homerun/XBH kind of guy. 

His batting line is somewhat down this year from previous years, as his career batting line is .241/.339/.371, including both foreign leagues and minor leagues. The only thing up this year is the OBP, due mostly to all the walks. 

Now, how can he affect the 2022 Cubs? He will likely receive an invitation to Spring Training, but I'm not sure if he will make his debut in 2022. If he remains with the Cubs, a more reasonable timeframe would be 2023, with starting the year in Double A and probably moving up to Triple A in the course of the year.

Now, an interesting scenario that is definitely a possibility is that Amaya would be a trade piece. That means that if there is a player on a another team that the Cubs want to target, Amaya would be a piece on the Cubs' side of the trade. I think that is a realistic idea, especially since the Cubs have other catchers moving up in the farm system, so we'll see.

Brailyn Marquez

He did not play in 2021 due to injury, but he debuted for the Cubs in 2020, and spent time before that in Double A.

Overall, his pitching line for the minors has been 3.19 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP, 287 K and 101 BB over 257 IP.

The ERA, which does not show everything about a pitcher, but is helpful, is great, showing 2.66 ERA in his last full season in the minors. His MLB pitching stats (one game) are not good, showing a 67.50 ERA...etc. But that was probably mostly due to nerves- 3 walks and 5 runs in 2/3 of an inning. So, that should not effect our overall view of his pitching.

He is a starting pitcher by trade, and he shows a great ability to not allow many runs, while striking out quite a few every game. He has only allowed 14 homeruns his whole career, so that is a huge thing.

The walks are a bit of a concern, as he has about a 10% BB rate over his career, and certainly that came out in his debut. If he keeps up the strikeouts and not giving up homers, he can be an amazing pitcher. He has great velocity, reaching 99 MPH in his debut.

If he was already an MLB pitcher, I would say he would be the right kind of pitcher for the Cubs, but he has a little ways to go in his development. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw him make some appearances this season with the Cubs, but I don't expect him to become a starter in 2022. 

It would be possible, however, if they did with him what they did with Alzolay, Thompson and Steele- put him in the bullpen first to get him used to being in the MLB, and in 2023 giving him a starting role.

So, expect Marquez and Davis to be making appearances in 2022, whether it be long-term or just a short stint depends on how they do.

In the future, I have high hopes for all of these, and it makes me excited to see the future of the Cubs being developed right now.

That's all for today folks, so make sure you are following Cubbies Gazette to get all the latest Cubs news!