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Evaluating Rafael Ortega's 2021 Season and Future With the Cubs

 


To start out today's article, LHP Rex Brothers was outrighted to Iowa and has elected MLB free agency. Brothers was given the chance to prove himself as a solid reliever in 2021, but walks, homers, and hard contact made him not-so-efficient. Not really sad or surprised here, the Cubs can find other and better relievers yet.

Rafael Ortega was a sudden yet pleasant surprise in 2021, being in a similar case as Schwindel- around 30 years old, picked up off waivers in the beginning of 2021, and really broke-out when he was called up in the latter half of the season. 

Overall, he hit .290/.360/.463 with 86 H and 11 HR in 296 AB. That is pretty impressive for a guy who had a .205 BA with the Braves last year, and didn't seem too promising.

We'll start by discussing the good things about Ortega that we see. First, I see a good strikeout and walk rate. I usually like bringing this up about almost every player because this really determines how they control the zone. He had a 21% K rate, which is 4% better than MLB average. That really fits in with the goal the Cubs have for their players- strikeouts need to go down.

The walk rate is great too- about a 9% BB rate, which is still pretty decent. The really great thing here overall is that he doesn't strikeout too much, but he still hits the ball well. His OBP is good, nothing bad about it, and the all the hits outweigh the walks to make his OBP pretty decent. Slugging is alright, it's pretty average and he still hit 11 HR and 14 Doubles in those AB. I see nothing alarming or outstanding in any of those areas.

Based on those numbers alone, I see a hitter that can hit singles as well as doubles and homers, so a pretty even hitter who can make good contact and hit the ball hard.

Ortega played the lead-off role pretty consistently, and had pretty good results- batting .303/.378/.493 in 201 AB as leadoff hitter. I think that was a great role for him, but Happ seemed like a great leadoff hitter in 2020, and then he wasn't in 2021. 

Some other areas to note about Ortega is the splits between LHP and RHP. Ortega is a lefty, so naturally he will hit righties better, but there is a pretty big difference. Against RHP, he batted .321/.374/.526, whereas against LHP he batted .128/.293/.128. That's a pretty big difference to say the least, and shows the reason why the Cubs let him start against righties only. 

That's one big area for improvement with Ortega- batting against lefties. Of course, he won't hit as well as he does against righties, but it still needs a lot of work.

One of Ortega's strong suits was batting with RISP. He had a grand total 33 RBIs, and with RISP he batted .315/.403/.593. So that's a very helpful thing to have on a team; a person that can bat runners in.

Now how does Ortega fit into the Cubs' 2022 plans? The first option is to trade him. I can see pros and cons for that, and we'll start with the pros for trading:

  • There is no guarantee he will do as well in 2022 as he did in 2021, and the Cubs would be gambling to assume he would. By trading him to another team who wants that gamble, the Cubs could avoid having (potentially) a non-productive player on the team.
  • The Cubs could get a prospect or two (or possibly a MLB player) in return for Ortega, who could be a solid player for another team in 2022. 
The cons for trading him:
  • If he ends up being a great player in 2022, which he very well could be, then the Cubs would be potentially losing a low-cost solid outfielder, which they certainly do not have a surplus of.
  • If they trade him for prospects or players, there is the chance that none of them help the team (or future team) as much as having Ortega help the team longer-term in the outfield. 
So which would I personally prefer and think would benefit the team the most? I say keep him. The Cubs do not have much outfield help the way it is, and I'm inclined to believe that Ortega will be productive in 2022, although maybe not quite as much as in 2021.

If the Cubs do keep him, they basically have a starting outfielder (most likely center field) all ready for Opening Day. That would help with having a base from which to work from- getting other outfielders like Soler or Taylor to help cement the outfield.

Will Ortega be leading off? He has shown that that is the role he is most comfortable in, but I think it mostly depends on who the Cubs get this offseason. If they get a lead-off guy like Castellanos, Correa, or Schwarber, then maybe not. But they could shift it around and still give Ortega the lead-off spot. They will probably just experiment with it and try to get a good line-up that helps them win games.

Well, that's all for today folks, and I hope y'all follow Cubbies Gazette and keep on the look-out for the newest Cubs articles!

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