Evaluating Ian Happ's 2021 Season

 

Ian Happ had the Cubs' front office's trust going into the 2021 season, gaining an Opening Day lead-off spot, and the hopes that he would be a reliable, everyday lead-off hitter getting good results like he did in 2020.

But, that was not the case, especially in the first half of the season, batting a deplorable .183/.296/.330 with only 42 hits and 9 homeruns in 230 AB. That was not the results the Cubs were hoping to get from the player that was their best in 2020.

In the second half of the season, however, Happ started warming up. (Just a little late perhaps?) He batted .268/.350/.536 with 63 hits and 16 homeruns in 235 AB, a remarkable change from the bad results he was having the first half.

In September/October alone, Happ batted .317/.405/.615 with a 1.020 OPS in 104 AB. That is more like the Happ the Cubs were expecting him to be like, only even a little better! If you viewed those results only, you would consider Happ to be one of your best players, which indeed he was in that time period (only Schwindel did better).

That is a lot of confusing information, followed by even more somewhat confusing stats. Happ's 156 Strikeouts led the team with most strikeouts, but not the highest strikeout rate. Overall, Happ had a 29% K rate, which is only slightly above average (24%). So, another stat that is somewhat deceiving. Happ's strikeout rate was good, I mean most every player could use a little work on strikeouts, but overall he was about average. 

The walk rate is also good, as he had a 11.6% BB rate, which is above average (average is 8%), so there isn't a real concern with either strikeouts or walks (Some other players could use some work on that...Wisdom...) So, then the stats about "Happ's team-leading strikeout number" are actually deceiving, as he had both a pretty good strikeout rate and walk rate. Remember, this is the overall rate for the whole year, even when he was batting really badly.

So, then, there must be another problem that Happ had in his batting, since strikeouts wasn't a blaring issue, so...what is it?

When looking at his advanced stats, there are a couple things that are somewhat red flags.

1. Ahead in Count vs Behind in Count

Now, this is an issue for a lot of batters. Simple logic tells you that if you're behind in the count (0-2, 1-2), that there is more tension for the batter, no more room for swings and misses, and also the tension to hit bad pitches.

When behind in the count, Happ batted .188/.196/.333, with only 69 strikeouts (less then half of his total strikeouts), so that tells you being behind in the count caused him to hit bad pitches for outs, instead of hits. 

When he was ahead in the count, Happ batted .323/.541/.617 with 43 hits; this is the whole year, remember, so that is certainly good results. So that shows he was more picky on which pitches he hit, and when he did hit it, he hit it for a hit, not an out. 

But the problem is, you're not going to always be ahead in the count, so that is an area to work on for Happ, and I think it really comes down to your mentality in the pitch count. If you do get behind, be just as picky as if you were ahead, only you can't take any more strikes. So, an area for improvement, but also being more aggressive early in the count might help avoid that scenario. 

2. Groundballs vs Flyballs vs Line Drives

No player can only hit line drives, or flyball singles, but being able to do it consistently is another thing. Consider a few of Happ's groundball stats: .207/.207/.234 batting line on all groundballs he hit. Happ hit into quite a few double plays this year, 12 to be exact, so that was not good, but it shows that when he was hitting groundballs, he would produce an out/outs. He hit groundballs 145 times, and only got a hit 30 times, so there went some of his batting average right there.

That shows a big area for improvement. Happ can hit, as we'll look at in a second, but the groundballs really affected his overall production. Grounding out and grounding into double plays consistently is costly, both to his productivity and to the team. So working on solid contact that is not a groundball should be a priority for Happ.

When he hit a flyball (including homeruns), he had a .366/.366/1.158 batting line, with 37 hits, 6 doubles, and 24 homeruns in 101 times he hit a flyball. So that shows good results, being able to hit singles and doubles (plus homers) instead of flying out every time he hit to the outfield.

With line drives, he had a .613/.603/.823 batting line, hitting 38 hits, and 10 doubles in 62 times hitting a line drive. This shows the productivity he can bring if he hits the flyballs and line drives that he gets results from.

If Happ could work on any one thing, it would be not hitting groundballs. of course every player hits some, but if that was to be his focus, I think we would see better results.

What Is Happ's Future With The Cubs?

With uncertainty going into the 2022 season, it is especially so with Ian Happ. Can he keep up the high level of productivity he shows he can bring at least the majority of the season? If he can keep up the good strikeout and walk rate, plus be hitting more good flyballs and line drives, he can really be a valuable core player for the Cubs.

If he played like that, and was able to cement a spot in the Cubs' outfield, he could be the player the Cubs can rely on. If he repeats his first-half of 2021 performance, then it could be a tough situation.

Should the Cubs trade Ian Happ? I think they should hold on to him for at least the first half of the season, and see how he does. If he struggles again, I think they should consider trading him to a competing team that can see how he comes alive in September and October and benefit the team.

But, I have a feeling that Happ will do well in 2022, and will end up being one of the core players of the new Cubs Era. On the Cubs trading him this offseason, I say don't do it. He is being paid 4M/yr and is under team control through 2024, and seeing his potential, it is an obvious win for the Cubs when he is playing well.

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