Naturally, every team plays their division rivals the most. For the Cubs, that's NL Central, and it's been a pretty unpredictable division for the last few years. Definitely less predictable than AL West, for example. So, it's a pretty natural conclusion that the Cubs' division rivals will either give them a lot of wins or a lot of losses, which in turn decides if the Cubs make or miss the playoffs.
We'll start by figuring out how the Cubs fared against their rivals in 2021.
- The Cubs were 4-15 vs the Brewers in 2021
- The Cubs were 9-10 vs the Cardinals in 2021
- The Cubs were 8-11 vs the Reds in 2021
- The Cubs were 14-5 vs the Pirates in 2021
Overall, the Cubs were 35-41 vs their division rivals in 2021 and played a total of 76 out of 162 games vs them. So, playing almost half of your season vs your division is pretty important, and the fact that the Cubs had a losing record vs every team except the Pirates is very telling.
The Brewers DID win the division and their pitching is nasty, so it isn't too much of a surprise that the Cubs struggled so much against them. The Cardinals and Reds were both pretty decent in 2021 and the Cardinals made the playoffs, and the Reds almost did, so it's not a huge surprise the Cubs had a losing record to them, though not a HUGE margin.
I'm thankful that the Cubs didn't have a losing record to the Pirates (that would be embarrassing), but overall, the Brewers were the ones that caused the most trouble to the Cubs.
2021 is past us now. The Cubs are a pretty different team now. So are the Brewers, Reds, and Cardinals. If I was just going based off of my assumptions and predictions, I would assume some basic stuff (the Cubs are still going to struggle against Brewers pitching, etc.), but Fangraphs puts out every team's ZiPS, which are basically a prediction of how each team will do in 2022.
So, I'm going to take each of the NL Central's teams and compare them to the Cubs, to see how the Cubs will fare against them in 2022. In this article however, for sake of room, I'll only mention two: the Brewers and Reds.
Cubs vs Brewers
Arguably the Cubs' toughest rival for 2022, but still carrying some weak spots, here's how the Brewers look in comparison to the Cubs.
- Catcher. Contreras/Gomes predicts to have a 3.1 WAR to the Brewers Narvaez/Severino predicted 1.3 WAR. The Cubs definitely have an advantage with catcher.
- 1B. Schwindel is predicted to have a 1.4 WAR (which personally I think is a little low) to Tellez/Hiura's predicted 1.0 WAR. So, the Cubs have an advantage with first base as well.
- 2B. Madrigal is predicted to have a 2.3 WAR, to Wong's predicted 3.0 WAR. The Brewers get an edge here, with Fangraphs projecting Wong to have a bounce back.
- SS. Hoerner/Alcantara (assuming the Cubs don't sign Correa) are predicted to have a 2.6 WAR to Adames' predicted 3.1 WAR. If the Cubs do sign Correa, they get the edge BIG TIME, but if they don't, Brewers get it.
- 3B. Wisdom/Bote project to have a 2.7 WAR, which besides catcher is the highest WAR in the Cubs' infield, surprisingly enough. Urias/Brosseau are projected to have a 2.8 WAR, so a very close matchup, but the Brewers get the edge.
- Infield Total. In the infield, the Cubs have a combined 12.1 WAR to the Brewers' 11.2 WAR. So, surprisingly enough, the Cubs get the edge in the infield WITHOUT including adding Correa or anybody else. True enough, the Brewers might also make some moves, but as it stands right now, the Cubs have the infield advantage.
- LF. Happ/Frazier have a combined 2.0 WAR for the Cubs, to Yelich's projected 3.3 WAR. Fangraphs sure thinks Yelich will have a bounce back, which is a bold prediction. The Brewers get the edge here.
- CF. Happ/Ortega have a projected 1.7 WAR for the Cubs, which I think is a little bit underestimate for Happ. Cain/Taylor have a projected 2.7 WAR, so the Brewers definitely get the advantage here.
- RF. Heyward/Hermosillo have a projected 1.5 WAR, to Renfroe's' projected 1.9 WAR. Grudgingly, I must admit the Brewers have the advantage.
- Outfield Total. The Cubs have a combined 5.2 WAR to the Brewers' 7.9 WAR. The Brewers certainly have an advantage of the outfield from a paper perspective, but the Cubs' outfield is made up of recovery projects (Frazier, Ramirez, Hermosillo), so we'll see what happens.
- Rotation. The Cubs have a combined projected 11.2 WAR for their rotation, with a lot of help from Stroman's 4.0 WAR. The Brewers have a combined 16.9 WAR, which is honestly a lot closer to the Cubs then I would have originally anticipated. Burnes helps quite a bit with his 5.2 WAR, and of course Woodruff with his 4.9 WAR. Brewers get the edge here, sadly enough.
- Bullpen. The Cubs have a combined 2.4 WAR, but Fangraphs doesn't really include those like Marquez and Kilian who will probably be contributing in 2022. The Brewers of course have a whopping 5.5 WAR for their bullpen, helped by Hader, Williams & Co. I'm not looking forward to a year of being dominated by Hader...
So, yeah. The Cubs only are better than the Brewers in the infield, and that not by much. The Brewers are better in the outfield and pitching...by a lot. How are the Cubs going to do against the Brewers? I definitely see the Cubs winning more games against them than last year, but still getting dominated by Brewers pitching. I guess we'll have to wait until next year.
Cubs vs Reds
- Catcher. Contreras/Gomes: 3.1 WAR. The Reds' Stephenson/Knapp are predicted to have a 1.8 WAR, so the Cubs get the edge.
- 1B. Schwindel: 1.4 WAR. Joey Votto is predicted to have a 2.1 WAR, which isn't too surprising, but the Reds get the advantage on this on paper.
- 2B. Madrigal: 2.3 WAR. Jonathan India, the 2021 ROY is predicted to have a 3.9 WAR. I must admit Madrigal is no India.
- SS. Hoerner/Alcantara: 2.6 WAR. Kyle Farmer is predicted to have a 1.2 WAR, so the Cubs have the edge with shortstop.
- 3B. Wisdom/Bote: 2.7 WAR. For the Reds, Moustakas/Suarez is predicted to have a 2.0 WAR, so the Cubs get the edge here too.
- Infield Total. The Cubs have a combined 12.1 WAR and the Reds have a combined 11 WAR, so the Cubs have the better infield of both the Brewers and the Reds. Maybe the Cubs have a better infield than I thought?
- LF. Happ/Frazier: 2.0 WAR. Jesse Winker has a predicted 2.8 WAR, which isn't that surprising considering his success in 2021. The Reds have the edge here.
- CF. Happ/Ortega: 1.7 WAR. Friedl/Naquin/Senzel have a projected 1.1 WAR, so the Cubs somehow get the advantage even with a predicted below-average CF.
- RF. Heyward/Hermosillo: 1.5 WAR. Naquin/Aquino/Friedl have a projected 1.4 WAR, so the Cubs have a slight advantage here.
- Outfield Total. The Cubs have a combined 5.2 WAR compared to the Reds' 5.3 WAR, so it is a really even match-up.
- Rotation. The Cubs have a combined 11.2 WAR for their rotation, as opposed to the Reds' 15.5 WAR for their rotation. So even with Miley signing with the Cubs, the Reds still have a better rotation. Castillo projects to lead it with a 5.0 WAR.
- Bullpen. The Cubs have a 2.4 WAR bullpen, and yes, the Reds beat them with a 4.6 WAR bullpen. It seems like the Cubs' will likely struggle with Reds pitching again.
After comparing it, the Cubs seem like they have better offensive players overall, and more consistency overall in all the positions, but the Reds have the better pitching. So, I can see the Cubs having a pretty even record with the Reds, but perhaps being a winning record for the Cubs.
With these two teams, the Cubs don't seem like they've made a whole lot of progress from 2021. I think they'll win a few more games against these two, but I can't see them dominating them just yet. Wait until 2023, then you'll see!
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